Huawei to launch operating system in October, says analyst

Much has been said about the possible abandonment of Android by Huawei due to restrictions imposed by the Trump government in the US-China trade war - there is even evidence of a compatriot bloc in the accession of a new operating system. Now, Guo Minghao, a market analyst at Tianfeng International, predicts not only that this should happen but also that HongMeng (or ArkOS, as it is called in the West) is due to arrive in October.

Huawei's handset distribution is expected to be larger than expected 

The information is from the Chinese media , which had access to Minghao's report on the current scenario. According to the document, if US control of the supply of Yankee technology remains the same in China, HongMeng is likely to be launched in four months, initially in emerging regions and Europe.

What's more, even with the boycott, Huawei's handset deployment would be larger than the market forecast for this year, which is 1.8 million to 2.1 million units.

Premium devices must follow, at least for now, with Android

"If our forecasts are confirmed and US export control remains the same, Huawei will benefit from the peak season demand in the fourth quarter of 2019. Phone shipments can be between 2.15 million and 2.25 million units, "says the analyst.

Minghao also states that the initial focus of HongMeng's distribution will be the entry market and intermediaries outside of China. That's because the OS would be "too young" to support the demand for premium phone applications. Initially, the novelty would be in Central and Eastern Europe and in emerging markets.

Suppliers would be discussing an exit 

The possibility of maintaining Huawei's manufacturing load, even with a drop in sales and unfavorable scenario with the departure of key players in its supply chain, would be tied to some factors pointed out by Minghao. The first of them is the supposed willingness that all parties would have to maintain the dialogue and good relationship with the Chinese giant.

Thus, the partners would be adjusting their supplies to continue doing business without violating the conditions imposed by Trump. In addition, shifting focus on the discussion surrounding the trade war between China and the United States could make it cool and favor Huawei.

Although the projections are based on a supply chain-based study, it is worth pointing out that the unclear definitions of export control in both countries - as well as the future of this subject - may bring a very different picture.

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